Trump Support Edges Higher in Wake of Orlando

The latest polling data from Reuters finds voters shifting support to Donald Trump in the days following the Orlando terrorist attack.

Prior to the attack, Hillary Clinton led Trump by almost 15 points in the Reuters tracking survey. In the latest results, Clinton leads Trump by 10 points.

The results run counter to the media narrative since the terrorist attack in Florida. Politico, for example, has run half-a-dozen stories this week exploring how Trump “flubbed” his response to the attack. Voters, however, don’t simply look at snap political statements in the wake of significant events to gauge candidates. The specifics of events themselves can shift the political landscape.

The Reuters survey is based on a five-day rolling average of interviews with around 1,200 likely voters. Most polls capture a snap-shot of the race within a small window of time. Many of the polls released this week included a large number of interviews conducted prior to the Orlando attack.

The overwhelming majority of interviews in the widely cited Bloomberg poll earlier this week, for example, were conducted before the terrorist attack. That survey showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 12 points. The poll was released, of course, after the country was reeling from the aftermath of the Orlando attack and was breathlessly reported by the media as somehow reflecting the state of the race. The poll itself, though, was outdated as soon as Omar Mateen murdered 49 people in his own act of jihad.

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